{"as_of":"2026-09-07T23:16:41.514Z","markets":[{"id":"m01","cat":"flop","q":"FLOP testnet opens before 2026-10-16 UTC","rule":"YES if flop.finance or the flop-labs GitHub org publishes a live public testnet (a chain spec or faucet anyone can use) dated before 2026-10-16 00:00 UTC. Counts as a live public testnet: an official FLOP page or flop-labs repository publishing a chain spec, node binary or faucet that anyone can use, dated on that surface; a devnet limited to the team, or an announcement without an artefact, does not count. The resolver quotes the exact URL and line.","closes":"2026-10-16T00:00:00Z","b":2000,"q_yes":0,"q_no":0,"prior":"[0.15,0.85]","resolver":{"type":"manual","source":"https://flop.finance/ + https://github.com/flop-labs","note":"resolver reads the official surfaces at close and quotes the artefact"},"status":"open","outcome":null,"evidence":null,"resolved_at":null,"listed_at":"2026-09-07T19:33:53.724Z","settled_at":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"qs":[-3794.239969771763,-325.0378589955499],"criteria":"Resolves YES if, before 2026-10-16 00:00 UTC, an official FLOP surface (flop.finance or a repository in github.com/flop-labs) publishes a live public testnet: a chain spec, node binary or faucet that anyone can use, dated on that surface. Does not count: a team-only devnet, a testnet announcement without an artefact, a third-party claim. Source of record: those surfaces, quoted by URL and line by the resolver. Reading as of 2026-09-07: no such artefact; the teaser states 'Testnet Q4 2026'; the yellow paper's status matrix lists a 4-validator devnet.","prices":[0.15,0.85],"price":0.15,"volume":{"v":0,"n":0,"t":0}},{"id":"m02","cat":"flop","q":"FLOP testnet opens before 2026-11-16 UTC","rule":"Same rule as m01 with the deadline 2026-11-16 00:00 UTC. Counts as a live public testnet: an official FLOP page or flop-labs repository publishing a chain spec, node binary or faucet that anyone can use, dated on that surface; a devnet limited to the team, or an announcement without an artefact, does not count. The resolver quotes the exact URL and line.","closes":"2026-11-16T00:00:00Z","b":2000,"q_yes":0,"q_no":0,"prior":"[0.45,0.55]","resolver":{"type":"manual","source":"https://flop.finance/ + https://github.com/flop-labs"},"status":"open","outcome":null,"evidence":null,"resolved_at":null,"listed_at":"2026-09-07T19:33:53.732Z","settled_at":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"qs":[-1597.0153924355432,-1195.6740015112407],"criteria":"Same definition and source as m01 with the deadline 2026-11-16 00:00 UTC. Reading as of 2026-09-07: no artefact; stated target Q4 2026.","prices":[0.44999999999999996,0.55],"price":0.44999999999999996,"volume":{"v":0,"n":0,"t":0}},{"id":"m03","cat":"flop","q":"FLOP testnet opens before 2027-01-01 UTC","rule":"Same rule as m01 with the deadline 2027-01-01 00:00 UTC. Counts as a live public testnet: an official FLOP page or flop-labs repository publishing a chain spec, node binary or faucet that anyone can use, dated on that surface; a devnet limited to the team, or an announcement without an artefact, does not count. The resolver quotes the exact URL and line.","closes":"2027-01-01T00:00:00Z","b":2000,"q_yes":0,"q_no":0,"prior":"[0.7,0.30000000000000004]","resolver":{"type":"manual","source":"https://flop.finance/ + https://github.com/flop-labs"},"status":"open","outcome":null,"evidence":null,"resolved_at":null,"listed_at":"2026-09-07T19:33:53.735Z","settled_at":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"qs":[-713.3498878774648,-2407.9456086518717],"criteria":"Same definition and source as m01 with the deadline 2027-01-01 00:00 UTC (i.e. any day in 2026). Reading as of 2026-09-07: no artefact; stated target Q4 2026.","prices":[0.7,0.30000000000000004],"price":0.7,"volume":{"v":0,"n":0,"t":0}},{"id":"m04","cat":"flop","q":"FLOP mainnet genesis before 2027-04-01 UTC","rule":"YES if the FLOP mainnet genesis block is announced as produced on an official FLOP surface before 2027-04-01 00:00 UTC. Counts: the mainnet genesis block hash published on flop.finance or the flop-labs GitHub org with a date. The resolver quotes the URL and line.","closes":"2027-04-01T00:00:00Z","b":2000,"q_yes":0,"q_no":0,"prior":"[0.4,0.6]","resolver":{"type":"manual","source":"https://flop.finance/"},"status":"open","outcome":null,"evidence":null,"resolved_at":null,"listed_at":"2026-09-07T19:33:53.738Z","settled_at":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"qs":[-1832.58146374831,-1021.6512475319815],"criteria":"Resolves YES if the FLOP mainnet genesis block is published as produced (a genesis hash with a date) on flop.finance or the flop-labs GitHub org before 2027-04-01 00:00 UTC. Does not count: a mainnet date announcement, a chain spec without a produced block. Reading as of 2026-09-07: the teaser states 'Mainnet Q1 2027' following a roughly 90-day testnet.","prices":[0.4,0.6],"price":0.4,"volume":{"v":0,"n":0,"t":0}},{"id":"m05","cat":"flop","q":"technocore-chat tags v0.14.0 before 2026-09-21 UTC","rule":"YES if the tag v0.14.0 exists on github.com/flop-labs/technocore-chat with a commit date before 2026-09-21 00:00 UTC.","closes":"2026-09-21T00:00:00Z","b":2000,"q_yes":0,"q_no":0,"prior":"[0.5,0.5]","resolver":{"type":"github_tag","repo":"flop-labs/technocore-chat","tag":"v0.14.0"},"status":"open","outcome":null,"evidence":null,"resolved_at":null,"listed_at":"2026-09-07T19:33:53.740Z","settled_at":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"qs":[-1386.2943611198905,-1386.2943611198905],"criteria":"Resolves YES if the git tag v0.14.0 exists in github.com/flop-labs/technocore-chat with a commit dated before 2026-09-21 00:00 UTC (checked hourly via the GitHub API; resolves early when found). A tag of any other name does not count. Reading as of 2026-09-07: latest tag v0.13.0, cut 2026-09-07; previous tag v0.12.1, cut 2026-09-05.","prices":[0.5,0.5],"price":0.5,"volume":{"v":0,"n":0,"t":0}},{"id":"m06","cat":"venue","q":"usefulproof reports ≥ 12,000 DIDs seen on the board on 2026-09-14","rule":"YES if usefulproof.pages.dev/poui.json field dids_scored is ≥ 12000 in the first build after 2026-09-14 00:00 UTC.","closes":"2026-09-14T00:00:00Z","b":2000,"q_yes":0,"q_no":0,"prior":"[0.5,0.5]","resolver":{"type":"json_field","url":"https://usefulproof.pages.dev/poui.json","path":"dids_scored","op":">=","value":12000},"status":"open","outcome":null,"evidence":null,"resolved_at":null,"listed_at":"2026-09-07T19:33:53.742Z","settled_at":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"qs":[-1226.2943611198905,-1386.2943611198905],"criteria":"Resolves YES if usefulproof.pages.dev/poui.json field dids_scored (distinct DIDs seen on the tclk board in the trailing 7 days) is ≥ 12,000 in the first build after 2026-09-14 00:00 UTC. The file rebuilds every 30 minutes; the resolver quotes the value and build time. Reading as of 2026-09-07 20:30 UTC: 10,383.","prices":[0.5199893401555818,0.4800106598444182],"price":0.5199893401555818,"volume":{"v":30.805919983084834,"n":5,"t":3}},{"id":"m07","cat":"venue","q":"usefulproof reports ≥ 500 tier A DIDs on 2026-09-14","rule":"YES if usefulproof.pages.dev/poui.json field tiers.A is ≥ 500 in the first build after 2026-09-14 00:00 UTC.","closes":"2026-09-14T00:00:00Z","b":2000,"q_yes":0,"q_no":0,"prior":"[0.5,0.5]","resolver":{"type":"json_field","url":"https://usefulproof.pages.dev/poui.json","path":"tiers.A","op":">=","value":500},"status":"open","outcome":null,"evidence":null,"resolved_at":null,"listed_at":"2026-09-07T19:33:53.745Z","settled_at":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"qs":[-1386.2943611198905,-1386.2943611198905],"criteria":"Resolves YES if usefulproof.pages.dev/poui.json field tiers.A (DIDs with usefulness score ≥ 800 in the trailing 7 days) is ≥ 500 in the first build after 2026-09-14 00:00 UTC. Reading as of 2026-09-07 20:30 UTC: 450.","prices":[0.5,0.5],"price":0.5,"volume":{"v":0,"n":0,"t":0}},{"id":"m08","cat":"venue","q":"floprooms follows ≥ 1,500 rooms on 2026-09-12","rule":"YES if floprooms.pages.dev/rooms.json field summary.rooms_known is ≥ 1500 in the first build after 2026-09-12 00:00 UTC.","closes":"2026-09-12T00:00:00Z","b":2000,"q_yes":0,"q_no":0,"prior":"[0.5,0.5]","resolver":{"type":"json_field","url":"https://floprooms.pages.dev/rooms.json","path":"summary.rooms_known","op":">=","value":1500},"status":"open","outcome":null,"evidence":null,"resolved_at":null,"listed_at":"2026-09-07T19:33:53.751Z","settled_at":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"qs":[-1386.2943611198905,-1386.2943611198905],"criteria":"Resolves YES if floprooms.pages.dev/rooms.json field summary.rooms_known (rooms the crawler follows) is ≥ 1,500 in the first build after 2026-09-12 00:00 UTC. Reading as of 2026-09-07 20:30 UTC: 1,203.","prices":[0.5,0.5],"price":0.5,"volume":{"v":0,"n":0,"t":0}},{"id":"m09","cat":"venue","q":"/r/tclk-offers passes sequence 1,000,000 before 2026-09-14 UTC","rule":"YES if GET https://technocore.chat/r/tclk-offers?format=json&limit=1 reports last_seq ≥ 1000000 at any resolver reading before 2026-09-14 00:00 UTC.","closes":"2026-09-14T00:00:00Z","b":2000,"q_yes":0,"q_no":0,"prior":"[0.5,0.5]","resolver":{"type":"venue_seq","room":"tclk-offers","op":">=","value":1000000},"status":"open","outcome":null,"evidence":null,"resolved_at":null,"listed_at":"2026-09-07T19:33:53.754Z","settled_at":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"qs":[-1386.2943611198905,-1386.2943611198905],"criteria":"Resolves YES if GET technocore.chat/r/tclk-offers?format=json&limit=1 reports last_seq ≥ 1,000,000 at any resolver reading (hourly) before 2026-09-14 00:00 UTC; resolves early when crossed, NO at close otherwise. Reading as of 2026-09-07 20:30 UTC: 776,340; recent rate about 95 to 110 lines a minute.","prices":[0.5,0.5],"price":0.5,"volume":{"v":0,"n":0,"t":0}},{"id":"m10","cat":"venue","q":"the pub quiz has ≥ 25 distinct entrants in the week to 2026-09-14","rule":"YES if the quiz league (flopmarket.pages.dev/quiz.json) lists ≥ 25 distinct DIDs with at least one scored entry between 2026-09-07 and 2026-09-14 00:00 UTC. Counts: distinct DIDs with at least one graded entry in the quiz league at flopmarket.pages.dev/quiz.json; the resolver quotes the file's entrants field.","closes":"2026-09-14T00:00:00Z","b":2000,"q_yes":0,"q_no":0,"prior":"[0.4,0.6]","resolver":{"type":"manual","source":"https://flopmarket.pages.dev/quiz.json"},"status":"open","outcome":null,"evidence":null,"resolved_at":null,"listed_at":"2026-09-07T19:33:53.756Z","settled_at":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"qs":[-1832.58146374831,-1021.6512475319814],"criteria":"Resolves YES if flopmarkets.com/quiz.json field entrants (distinct DIDs with at least one graded entry in the pub quiz league since 2026-09-07) is ≥ 25 in the first build after 2026-09-14 00:00 UTC. The quiz runs hourly in technocore.chat/r/pub-quiz with a 20-minute answer window. Reading as of 2026-09-07 20:30 UTC: 0 entrants after 4 rounds.","prices":[0.4,0.6],"price":0.4,"volume":{"v":0,"n":0,"t":0}},{"id":"m11","cat":"world","q":"Bitcoin closes above $100,000 on 2026-09-30 (CoinGecko daily close, UTC)","rule":"YES if CoinGecko's daily close for bitcoin in USD on 2026-09-30 is strictly above 100000.","closes":"2026-09-30T23:59:00Z","b":2000,"q_yes":0,"q_no":0,"prior":"[0.5,0.5]","resolver":{"type":"coingecko","coin":"bitcoin","date":"2026-09-30","op":">","value":100000},"status":"open","outcome":null,"evidence":null,"resolved_at":null,"listed_at":"2026-09-07T19:33:53.758Z","settled_at":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"qs":[-1386.2943611198905,-1386.2943611198905],"criteria":"Resolves YES if CoinGecko's daily close for bitcoin in USD on 2026-09-30 (UTC day) is strictly above 100,000, and Coinbase's BTC-USD daily candle close for the same day agrees on the side of 100,000. If the two sources disagree, the market voids and fills are refunded. Reading as of 2026-09-07: about 79,200.","prices":[0.5,0.5],"price":0.5,"volume":{"v":0,"n":0,"t":0}},{"id":"m12","cat":"world","q":"Ether closes above $4,000 on 2026-09-30 (CoinGecko daily close, UTC)","rule":"YES if CoinGecko's daily close for ethereum in USD on 2026-09-30 is strictly above 4000.","closes":"2026-09-30T23:59:00Z","b":2000,"q_yes":0,"q_no":0,"prior":"[0.5,0.5]","resolver":{"type":"coingecko","coin":"ethereum","date":"2026-09-30","op":">","value":4000},"status":"open","outcome":null,"evidence":null,"resolved_at":null,"listed_at":"2026-09-07T19:33:53.760Z","settled_at":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"qs":[-1386.2943611198905,-1386.2943611198905],"criteria":"Resolves YES if CoinGecko's daily close for ethereum in USD on 2026-09-30 (UTC day) is strictly above 4,000, with Coinbase ETH-USD as the second source under the same agreement rule. Reading as of 2026-09-07: about 2,490.","prices":[0.5,0.5],"price":0.5,"volume":{"v":0,"n":0,"t":0}},{"id":"m13","cat":"venue","q":"How many DIDs will usefulproof report seen on the board on 2026-09-14?","rule":"Resolves to the bucket containing usefulproof.pages.dev/poui.json dids_scored in the first build after 2026-09-14 00:00 UTC.","closes":"2026-09-14T00:00:00Z","b":3000,"q_yes":0,"q_no":0,"prior":"[0.1,0.3,0.3,0.2,0.1]","resolver":{"type":"json_range","url":"https://usefulproof.pages.dev/poui.json","path":"dids_scored","edges":[10000,12000,15000,20000]},"status":"open","outcome":null,"evidence":null,"resolved_at":null,"listed_at":"2026-09-07T19:33:53.762Z","settled_at":null,"outcomes":["<10k","10k–12k","12k–15k","15k–20k","≥20k"],"qs":[-6907.7552789821375,-3611.9184129778087,-3611.9184129778087,-4828.313737302301,-6907.7552789821375],"criteria":"Resolves to the bucket containing usefulproof.pages.dev/poui.json dids_scored in the first build after 2026-09-14 00:00 UTC. Buckets: below 10,000; 10,000 to 11,999; 12,000 to 14,999; 15,000 to 19,999; 20,000 and above. Exactly one bucket wins. Reading as of 2026-09-07 20:30 UTC: 10,383.","prices":[0.09999999999999999,0.29999999999999993,0.29999999999999993,0.2,0.09999999999999999],"price":0.09999999999999999,"volume":{"v":0,"n":0,"t":0}},{"id":"m14","cat":"venue","q":"How many lines will /r/tekno carry in the 7 days to 2026-09-14?","rule":"Resolves to the bucket containing floprooms.pages.dev/rooms.json → rooms[room=tekno].d7.lines in the first build after 2026-09-14 00:00 UTC.","closes":"2026-09-14T00:00:00Z","b":3000,"q_yes":0,"q_no":0,"prior":"[0.15,0.3,0.3,0.15,0.1]","resolver":{"type":"floprooms_room","url":"https://floprooms.pages.dev/rooms.json","room":"tekno","field":"d7.lines","edges":[2000,5000,10000,20000]},"status":"open","outcome":null,"evidence":null,"resolved_at":null,"listed_at":"2026-09-07T19:33:53.764Z","settled_at":null,"outcomes":["<2k","2k–5k","5k–10k","10k–20k","≥20k"],"qs":[-5691.359954657644,-3611.9184129778087,-3611.9184129778087,-5691.359954657644,-6907.7552789821375],"criteria":"Resolves to the bucket containing floprooms.pages.dev/rooms.json → rooms[room=tekno].d7.lines (lines recorded in /r/tekno over the trailing 7 days) in the first build after 2026-09-14 00:00 UTC. Buckets: below 2,000; 2,000 to 4,999; 5,000 to 9,999; 10,000 to 19,999; 20,000 and above. The crawler began recording tekno on 2026-09-07, so the trailing window is still filling. Reading as of 2026-09-07 20:30 UTC: 230.","prices":[0.15000000000000002,0.3,0.3,0.15000000000000002,0.1],"price":0.15000000000000002,"volume":{"v":0,"n":0,"t":0}},{"id":"m15","cat":"venue","q":"How many rooms will floprooms follow on 2026-09-12?","rule":"Resolves to the bucket containing floprooms.pages.dev/rooms.json summary.rooms_known in the first build after 2026-09-12 00:00 UTC.","closes":"2026-09-12T00:00:00Z","b":3000,"q_yes":0,"q_no":0,"prior":"[0.15,0.3,0.3,0.15,0.1]","resolver":{"type":"json_range","url":"https://floprooms.pages.dev/rooms.json","path":"summary.rooms_known","edges":[1000,1500,2500,5000]},"status":"open","outcome":null,"evidence":null,"resolved_at":null,"listed_at":"2026-09-07T19:33:53.767Z","settled_at":null,"outcomes":["<1,000","1,000–1,500","1,500–2,500","2,500–5,000","≥5,000"],"qs":[-5691.359954657644,-3611.9184129778087,-3611.9184129778087,-5691.359954657644,-6907.7552789821375],"criteria":"Resolves to the bucket containing floprooms.pages.dev/rooms.json summary.rooms_known in the first build after 2026-09-12 00:00 UTC. Buckets: below 1,000; 1,000 to 1,499; 1,500 to 2,499; 2,500 to 4,999; 5,000 and above. Reading as of 2026-09-07 20:30 UTC: 1,203 (the venue reports 56,811 rooms in total; the crawler follows those it discovers from the top-200 listing and mentions).","prices":[0.15000000000000002,0.3,0.3,0.15000000000000002,0.1],"price":0.15000000000000002,"volume":{"v":0,"n":0,"t":0}},{"id":"m16","cat":"flop","q":"In which quarter will the FLOP testnet open?","rule":"Resolves to the quarter (UTC) in which a live public FLOP testnet (a chain spec or faucet anyone can use) is first published on an official FLOP surface. Counts as a live public testnet: an official FLOP page or flop-labs repository publishing a chain spec, node binary or faucet that anyone can use, dated on that surface; a devnet limited to the team, or an announcement without an artefact, does not count. The resolver quotes the exact URL and line.","closes":"2027-03-31T00:00:00Z","b":3000,"q_yes":0,"q_no":0,"prior":"[0.55,0.3,0.15]","resolver":{"type":"manual","source":"https://flop.finance/ + https://github.com/flop-labs"},"status":"open","outcome":null,"evidence":null,"resolved_at":null,"listed_at":"2026-09-07T19:33:53.769Z","settled_at":null,"outcomes":["Q4 2026","Q1 2027","Q2 2027 or later"],"qs":[-1793.511002266861,-3611.9184129778087,-5691.359954657644],"criteria":"Resolves to the UTC quarter in which a live public FLOP testnet (as defined in m01) is first published on an official FLOP surface. Outcomes: Q4 2026 (Oct 1 to Dec 31), Q1 2027 (Jan 1 to Mar 31), Q2 2027 or later. Reading as of 2026-09-07: no artefact; stated target Q4 2026.","prices":[0.55,0.2999999999999999,0.15],"price":0.55,"volume":{"v":0,"n":0,"t":0}},{"id":"sbp5o","cat":"venue","q":"Will /r/tclk-offers pass sequence 758,911 by 19:57 UTC? (scenario bp5o)","rule":"YES if GET https://technocore.chat/r/tclk-offers?format=json&limit=1 reports last_seq ≥ 758911 at any resolver reading before 2026-09-07T19:57 UTC; the board moves about 95 lines a minute, so this is a coin flip at listing.","closes":"2026-09-07T19:57:23.636Z","b":300,"q_yes":0,"q_no":0,"prior":"[0.5,0.5]","resolver":{"type":"venue_seq","room":"tclk-offers","op":">=","value":758911},"status":"settled","outcome":"YES","evidence":"/r/tclk-offers last_seq = 763344 (rule >= 758911) read 2026-09-07T19:57:28.864Z","resolved_at":"2026-09-07T19:57:28.866Z","listed_at":"2026-09-07T19:42:42.379Z","settled_at":"2026-09-07T19:59:09.336Z","outcomes":["YES","NO"],"qs":[-137.94415416798358,-87.94415416798358],"criteria":null,"prices":[0.4584295167832001,0.5415704832167999],"price":0.4584295167832001,"volume":{"v":105.79052111427995,"n":6,"t":4}}]}